Tune in to the Very Fast Break South Australia June 2021 Edition
The Very Fast Break
Seasonal Climate Update for South Australia June 2021
Published by Agriculture Victoria, Bendigo
(Singing with guitar backing) Welcome to the Very Fast Break your seasonal climate update.
00:08
Welcome to the Very Fast Break seasonal climate outlook for South Australia.
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Well the state is limping along towards germinating crop,
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and most could do with some good top up. Let's see where the rain did fall.
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The BoM decile map for May shows most of the regions drier at decile two to three. Areas
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of the central Eyre Peninsula and Mid North were closer to normal.
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Areas of the eastern EP, and parts of the Mallee had less than 10mm for the month.
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The regions surrounded by bright blue all managed to get a semi useful 25mm or more.
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Looking at May's maximum temperature deciles, it was warmer at decile eight to nine
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in all but the Upper North and north EP. A section of the SA Mallee
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was one to two degrees warmer for the month. With a few frosts,
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minimum temperatures were cooler by one to two degrees in this region as well.
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Glancing at the the BoM AWRA modelled soil moisture decile for pasture,
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it very closely matches the May rainfall deciles. Only the Central and Western EP
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and the Mid North are ranked close to normal. The NR-SAMDB, EPARF, SARDI, Agbyte and MFMG
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soil probe network shows a few areas that jagged enough rainfall to significantly increase the
01:23
volume. Bute increased by 13 percentage points from 64 to 77 per cent plant available water.
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Viewing sea surface temperature anomalies, there is still very little going on in the Pacific.
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The temperature at NINO3.4 has slowly warmed to normal. The undersea has also warmed a bit more
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than average. Cloud at the dateline and pressure patterns are normal, just the trade winds are
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blowing stronger and more La Nina like. There has been a major change in the Indian Ocean.
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Severe tropical cyclone Tauktae stirred some stronger southerly winds in the western IOD box and the
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ocean has rapidly cooled to be slightly cool. The eastern box remains unchanged at slightly warm.
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Combined, the Dipole Mode Index is -0.66 at the threshold of -IOD but its early days yet.
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Pressure, wind and cloud patterns are yet to show any -IOD signals and they need to,
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if a -IOD is to form over coming months, as some models are predicting.
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Pressure has been higher over south east Australia for another consecutive month. In conjunction with
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the positioning of a large high centred over South Australia, this has been chasing most rain systems
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away. The centre of high pressure has been around the top of the Bight, a normal winter position,
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but the absolute position of pressure is blocking the rainfall action from most of South Australia.
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My assessment of twelve climate models for South Australia shows neutral to likely wetter rainfall
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and likely warmer to neutral temperatures for the next three months.
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Welcome to 'How to make it rain. Guess number one
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Umm - wash the car? Incorrect. Guess again.
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Buying tank water Nope. Guess again.
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Booking the shearers Often seems that way - but no.
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How bout that pesky high pressure nicking off and giving the rain a chance!
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Correct!!! You've made it to the bonus round!
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How bout a rain dance! Oh Dale,get your gear back on for goodness sake!!
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OK hit him with the cold shower.
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Laughing.
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(Singing with ukulele backing) Well that was the Very Fast Break your seasonal climate update.